What Did the Polls Get Right in 2020: Beyond the Election Results

The 2020 US Presidential Election, a pivotal moment in American political history, turned the usual patterns of polling on their head. The traditional notion that polls shrink as election day approaches for most candidates fell apart, revealing the complexities and curves of the American political landscape. This article explores the accuracy of the poll predictions for the 2020 election and what they tell us about the voting behavior of the electorate.

The Predictions and Their Accuracy

Polling Trends and Election Night

Traditionally, pre-election polls provide a robust and relatively stable prediction of the election outcome, narrowing in the final days. However, the 2020 US Presidential Election challenged this assumption. Polls predicted a consistent outcome: Biden would not only win the popular vote but also the electoral college. Both predictions appeared accurate as election day approached, and the results validated the pollsters' insights.

The final count saw Biden securing about 52% of the popular vote against Trump's 48%. This margin could have shifted slightly with the inclusion of every ballot, but the initial projection was quite accurate. Polls showed a tight race in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where even a slight swing in the election could dramatically impact the final tally.

Despite the margin being relatively narrow, the polls managed to predict the election results with a high degree of accuracy, which is a testament to the data collection and analysis techniques employed by pollsters in 2020.

Bidens Path to Victory in the Electoral College

Key States in Play

While Biden secured a clear popular vote victory, the ultimate outcome was based on the Electoral College. As of the date of this article, four states remained in play: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. These states hold a total of 46 electoral votes, which could significantly influence the final result.

One of these states, Arizona, showed a small lead for Biden as the vote was being counted. The situation in Georgia was similar, with Biden steadily increasing his lead in the mail-in votes that were poured in. Nevada, which has already cast most of its ballots, was coming from behind, but there were still late reports from the Reno area that could change the dynamics. Pennsylvania, with its significant electoral votes, has seen Biden's lead steadily increase as mail-in votes were counted.

The importance of these states lies in their combined 46 electoral votes, which could tip the scales in favor of one candidate or the other. As polls predicted, the final tally in these states could determine the winner of the Electoral College.

Implications for Future Elections

Future of Polling

The 2020 election demonstrated the potential of modern polling methods. The accuracy of the predictions in 2020 may have surprised some, but it also raised questions about the reliability of traditional polling techniques. The mail-in vote phenomenon, which broke election patterns and conditions, brought new challenges to pollsters.

The success of the poll predictions for the 2020 election suggests that modern data collection and analysis techniques can provide valuable insights into voter behavior. However, it also highlights the need for ongoing innovation and improvement in polling methods to account for changing social and political landscapes.

Conclusion

The 2020 US Presidential Election presented a unique opportunity to evaluate the accuracy of pre-election polls. Despite the complexities and uncertainties, the polls managed to predict the outcome with remarkable precision. This article has explored the various factors that contributed to the accuracy of the polls and the implications for future elections. As we move forward, the lessons learned from the 2020 election will undoubtedly inform the development of more robust and reliable polling methodologies.

Keywords: Election Polls, 2020 US Election, Electoral College