Was Stalin Planning to Attack Nazi Germany in 1942?

In my opinion, the answer is a resounding No. In 1942, Stalin did not have any plans to attack Nazi Germany. While it is true that Stalin anticipated a war with Germany, the Russian military was still recovering from the purges and the Red Army was undergoing reorganizations. The focus at that time was on recovering from the war and strengthening the military, not initiating a pre-emptive attack.

Examining the Evidence

The non-aggression pact between the USSR and Nazi Germany was a fifteen-year agreement that began in 1939. This pact was a strategic choice to gain time and resources, as evidenced by historical records. During World War I, Germany had defeated Russia, and the Communist regime that followed tried to attack disarmed Germany in 1920. However, a small Polish force repelled the Russian advance.

Additionally, the Soviet Union had difficulties in the Russo-Finnish War of 1939–1940, and the three Baltic states and Ukraine were returned to the Soviet sphere, further aligning with the strategic interests of the Soviet Union. Economically, Nazi Germany was the Soviet Union's best customer, especially in 1941, when Germany was at war with Great Britain. Geopolitically, attacking Nazi Germany would not have made strategic sense.

Strategic Interests and Perceptions

Stalin likely wanted Nazi Germany and the Allies to weaken each other before the Soviet Union entered the war. The non-aggression pact was a diplomatic and strategic move aimed at ensuring the stability of the Soviet Union's eastern border. Historical records and statements from Field Marshal Paulus during the Nuremberg trials support this viewpoint. Paulus mentioned that German troops were positioned far from the USSR border with the intention of not being discovered.

The Context of Security Agreements and Alliances

It is worth noting that Stalin had security agreements with other nations, such as Czechoslovakia. The Soviet Union had an agreement with Czechoslovakia for joint defense. When Hitler was planning to invade Czechoslovakia in 1938, Stalin confirmed that the Red Army was prepared to defend Czechoslovakia. Poland, a potential ally, announced that it would join Germany in a war against the USSR. In this scenario, Czechoslovakia chose to surrender to Hitler, aligning with his demands.

Despite these agreements, there were no plans for the Soviet Union to attack Germany. As Field Marshal Paulus stated in his Nuremberg testimony, there were no fears of a Soviet attack, which allowed German troops to be positioned far from the border without fear of discovery.

It is important to consider the broader context of WWII, where the actions and beliefs of leaders often intersected with geopolitical imperatives. Stalin's concerns were primarily focused on the welfare and security of the Soviet Union, which involved careful strategy and diplomacy.

In conclusion, while Stalin anticipated a war with Germany, there were no plans for the Soviet Union to attack Nazi Germany in 1942. The primary focus was on rebuilding and strengthening the military, not on launching a pre-emptive strike.