Why Did Varys and Illyrio Choose Stark vs. Lannister Conflict?

The complex political landscape of Westeros, with its myriad of noble houses and contending interests, provided fertile ground for the infamous political manipulators, Varys and Illyrio Mopatis. Their intricate plans were centered around the Targaryen legacy and the potential for Daenerys Targaryen to return to the Iron Throne. However, a crucial question arises: why did they opt to create conflict between the Starks and Lannisters instead of directly between the Baratheons and Lannisters? This article will delve into the strategic reasons behind their choice.

1. Political Leverage: Instability Via Divided Powers

Varys and Illyrio recognized the overwhelming political power of the Stark and Lannister houses. By instigating a conflict between these powerful families, theycould without directly attacking the Baratheons, the ruling family at the time, destabilize the existing power structure. This strategic manipulation aimed to create a condition of widespread dissatisfaction and unrest, providing an opportunity for Daenerys Targaryen's ascension.

2. Ned Stark’s Honor: The Predictability of Chaos

A significant factor in Varys's plan was Eddard Stark's honor and duty. By uncovering the Lannister treachery, Ned Stark would be compelled to confront the Lannisters. This predictability made the Stark-Lannister conflict easier to manipulate. Varys understood that this dynamic would lead to a more controlled and predictable outcome, which would aid in their larger scheme.

3. Baratheon Stability: Risk of Disruption

Another strategic consideration involved the stability of the Baratheons. Instead of directly challenging the Baratheons, who were already a significant and powerful force, Varys and Illyrio chose to maintain their influence. Directly instigating conflict between the Baratheons and Lannisters could have resulted in a stronger alliance against a common enemy, making the Baratheons more formidable to the Targaryens.

4. Focusing Attention: Drawing Away the Baratheons

By focusing on the Starks and Lannisters, Varys and Illyrio could effectively draw attention away from the Baratheons. This allowed them to cultivate Daenerys’s claim to the throne without immediate confrontation. The ongoing conflict between the Starks and Lannisters ensured that these houses were preoccupied with their internal strife, thus providing a window of opportunity for the Targaryens.

5. Creating a Vacuum: Chaos for Daenerys's Rise

The chaos resulting from the Stark-Lannister conflict created a power vacuum that Daenerys could exploit. Weakened by the war, the existing powers became more receptive to the idea of stability, making the restoration of the Targaryens more appealing. Varys, as a steadfast supporter of the Targaryens, aimed to restore their legacy, and he used the conflict to create a scenario where the return of Daenerys would be seen as a solution to the chaos.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Varys and Illyrio's strategy of fostering conflict between the Starks and Lannisters was a calculated and intricate move. They sought to destabilize powerful houses while maintaining the Baratheons as a potential ally. This approach allowed them to work towards their ultimate goal of reinstating Daenerys Targaryen without risking the premature confrontation with the Baratheons, who were still a significant force in the realm. Through their manipulative tactics, Varys and Illyrio managed to weave a complex tapestry of conflict and alliances, ultimately paving the way for the Targaryen resurgence.