The Real Impact of Third-Party Votes: Jill Stein, Gary Johnson, and the Election

The 2016 U.S. presidential election was one of the most contentious and polarizing political events in recent history. Given the choices available, many voters were faced with the dilemma of whether to support a major-party candidate or choose a third-party candidate like Jill Stein or Gary Johnson. This decision not only shapes the immediate outcome of the election but also has long-term implications for the future of American democracy.

Is a Jill Stein Vote a Vote for Donald Trump?

The notion that a vote for Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, is essentially a vote for Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, is a common refrain among political analysts. This assumption is based on the idea that Jill Stein is perceived as a preferred choice for many Bernie Sanders supporters who felt disenchanted with the Democratic establishment.

However, it is important to consider that every vote counts, especially in competitive states. If a voter would have preferred Hillary Clinton but instead supports Jill Stein, that vote has shifted to Donald Trump. Conversely, if a voter would have chosen Donald Trump and instead backs Gary Johnson, a vote for Johnson could be seen as a vote for Clinton. This dynamic is crucial in states where the margin of victory is slim.

The Real Impact of Gary Johnson

Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party nominee, is seen as a more moderate choice compared to the two major candidates. The idea of a Gary Johnson vote equating to a vote for Hillary Clinton is rooted in the belief that Johnson’s primary impact would be on the Clinton side. According to some polling data, it looks as though Johnson is drawing more votes from Clinton’s supporters than from Trump’s base.

However, this is not always the case. In a specific scenario, a vote for Gary Johnson could indeed swing the election in favor of Donald Trump. Nate Silver, a prominent political analyst, has outlined a potential outcome where both major candidates secure 269 electoral votes, with Gary Johnson winning New Mexico’s electoral votes. If this happens, it would be a close electoral college tie, forcing the House of Representatives to decide between the two major candidates.

The Risk of Voting for Lesser Evils

The philosophy of voting for the “lesser evil” to prevent an even worse outcome is a common strategy in American politics. However, this approach is harmful to the democratic process. By choosing a major-party candidate solely to prevent an alternative candidate from winning, voters allow those major-party candidates to continue representing ideologies and platforms that do not truly reflect their values.

The 2016 election provided a unique opportunity to challenge the status quo and bring about real change. With both major parties facing internal divisions and questioning of their leadership, third-party candidates like Jill Stein and Gary Johnson had the potential to reshape political discourse and push for new policies and ideas.

A Glimmer of Hope for Third-Party Success

While the election did not yield the desired results for third-party candidates, the experience of 2016 demonstrated a significant shift in public perception. For instance, only a few decades ago, women, African Americans, and Catholics were virtually banned from the presidency. Today, the possibility of an Asian-American, Latino, or Muslim president is no longer considered outlandish.

The 2016 election also highlighted the unique opportunity that third parties have to make a lasting impact. With the two major parties representing less than half of all Americans, an electoral coalition of third-party voters and disaffected major-party voters could create a meaningful shift in the political landscape.

Conclusion: Voting for Real Change

The 2016 election was a turning point for American democracy. The time has come for voters to recognize the importance of their individual vote and the potential for third-party candidates to bring about real change. By supporting Jill Stein, Gary Johnson, or other third-party candidates, voters can help push the political system towards greater inclusivity and representation.