If World Wars Had Never Occurred: A Potential Path for Russia's Future

The onset of the two World Wars in the early 20th century had profound and lasting impacts on the geopolitical landscape, particularly for Russia. Speculating on a scenario where both World Wars were averted requires us to delve into the complexities of the political and military strategies of the era. This article explores the potential benefits for Russia if the events of 1914-1925 had been averted.

German War Plans and the Impact on Russia

The initial trigger for the conflict in 1914 was the Balkan tensions; however, once Austria-Hungary declared war on Serbia following the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, Russia, as a guarantor of the Slavic territories, was mobilized to support Serbia. Germany, bound by treaty to support Austria-Hungary, felt obliged to enter the war, despite the misgivings of Kaiser Wilhelm himself. It is crucial to note that in 1914, Germany lacked a detailed plan for a single-front war.

Due to the complexity of geopolitical alliances, a conflict that involved Germany would have quickly escalated into a multi-front war involving all major powers. This, in my opinion, justifies the 'war guilt' Clause 231 of the Treaty of Versailles, which stated that Germany bore significant responsibility for the war. Any conflict involving Germany, even of a single front, would have been likely to become a two-front war, given the scattered nature of the opposing armies and their extensive arsenals of machine guns.

Likely Outcomes Without World War 1

Without World War 1, Germany might have been spared the ignominious defeat, and possibly a peaceful reintroduction of itself as a European power. If Berlin had communicated to Vienna the need for a delay in declaring war, particularly if this communication had been timely, there is a possibility that the conflict could have been limited to a single front. However, we can only speculate about the outcomes, as history cannot be changed.

Even if World War 1 had not led to Germany's defeat, the resulting implications for Russia and the broader European balance of power would still be significant. A different peace treaty might have led to a faster economic recovery for all parties involved, but the devastation in the west would have made it politically challenging for any government to negotiate such a lenient settlement. Furthermore, without the shock of the Treaty of Versailles, it is less likely that Russia faced the revolutionary pressures that precipitated the Russian Revolution of 1917.

The Long-Term Evolution of Germany

After the war, Germany would have eventually rebuilt its economy and military, although not necessarily to the scale of the Nazi era. Nonetheless, the rebuilding process would have been slower and less catastrophic, potentially avoiding the extreme nationalist and militaristic sentiments that fueled the rise of the Third Reich.

Without the necessity to rebuild, Germany might have had a more stable and cooperative relationship with its neighbors. This could have prevented the tension and aggression that eventually led to the outbreak of World War 2. A less militarized Germany might have explored peaceful avenues for asserting its influence in Europe and the world, setting a different course for the 20th century.

Conclusion: A Changed Geopolitical Landscape

In summary, the absence of both World Wars would have significantly altered the geopolitical landscape, particularly for Russia. While we cannot definitively state the precise benefits, it is clear that the interwar period of peace and rebuilding could have led to a more stable and cooperative Europe. Without the devastation of the two world wars, Russia and the rest of the world might have seen a different course of events and outcomes in the following decades.

Without the profound impacts of World War 1 and World War 2, the 20th century might have unfolded in a manner that prioritized peace, stability, and cooperation, leading to a different path for Russia and other nations in the region.