Understanding the Concept of Scientific Consensus

No ‘scientific consensus’ is a flexible term often deployed for rhetorical effect. It refers broadly to the majority agreement among scientists on a particular conclusion or narrative. It is rare for this number to reach 100 percent, nor do those who mostly agree usually concur on all the details. When explaining this to the public, nuances can be challenging to convey, hence the use of shorthand like 'scientific consensus.' Such simplifications can be misleading.

The Nature of Scientific Research and Consensus

In any scientific field, new research builds on and is usually based upon earlier research, including observations, discoveries, and theories. In scientific parlance, 'consensus' signifies that most researchers in a given field rely on the same earlier observations, discoveries, and theories. They do so because they believe there are no better alternatives available. The consensus represents what we have learned about nature, though it is important to note that it is not immutable. Historically, consensus is refined over time rather than overturned. An example is how Einstein's theory of gravity replaced Newton's without negating Newton's predictions.

The Importance of Scientific Consensus for Laypersons

It is crucial to establish a consensus, or at least the appearance of one, in situations where evidence does not support a claim yet you need to convince laypeople of its validity. A 'scientific consensus' means ‘what most scientists think.’ While it holds significance for non-scientists, it is practically meaningless for scientists themselves. It neither proves nor explains anything; it offers no insights into understanding how nature works. It is misleading to believe that an opinion poll of scientists can reveal truth. The perceived majority agreement, such as 97% of scientists, is a myth propagated to deceive laypeople.

Addressing the Misconception

Some laypeople mistakenly think that if 97% of scientists agree on something, it must be true or highly probable. This argument has no validity, and its premise is false. The supposed 97% consensus is a myth designed to mislead. The truth is that consensus does not provide proof or evidence of scientific validity. Scientists go out of their way to avoid discussing such matters, as they are irrelevant to the scientific process. The consensus is a tool often exploited by those who wish to lend an air of legitimacy to their claims, knowing that non-scientists will fall for it.

Conclusion

Understanding the nature of scientific consensus is crucial for both scientists and laypeople. It is a evolving understanding built on the work of many researchers. While it holds significant weight for non-scientists, it should not be taken as a definitive proof of scientific truth. Recognizing the limitations of consensus helps avoid misinterpretations and fosters a more accurate understanding of scientific research and its implications.