Could the Dance of Dragons Have Been Won by Any Side? Analysis and Outcome

The Dance of Dragons, a series of conflicts fought in the realm of Westeros over a succession dispute, has long been a topic of fascination among fans of George R.R. Martin's A Song of Ice and Fire series and A Game of Thrones TV adaptation. The war was marked by intricate political plots, powerful characters, and epic battles. Could any side have won the Dance of Dragons? In this analysis, we will explore the strengths and weaknesses of both the Black and the Green factions, and discuss what might have led to a different outcome if certain decisions were made differently.

Strengths and Weaknesses of the Black Faction

On the side of the Blacks, led by Queen Rhaenyra Targaryen, there was a powerful array of support and resources. Queen Rhaenyra was her father King Viserys' chosen heir. She was granted the title of Princess of Dragonstone and was married to the highly skilled Prince Daemon Targaryen. The Velaryon fleet, under the command of Ser Laenor Velaryon, bolstered her claim, as did the support from Houses Arryn, Targaryen, Velaryon, Tully, Stark, and Darklyn. Additionally, Queen Rhaenyra had a formidable number of dragons, including Syrax, Caraxes, Vermithor, Meleys, Arrax, Vermax, Silverwing, and Moondancer.

Queen Rhaenyra's supporters included her father, King Viserys I, her uncle, and her first cousin, as well as her husband and their children. However, she made several poor decisions that ultimately weakened her position. For instance, her love affair with Ser Harwin Strong diverted attention from her duties, and her marriage to Ser Laenor Velaryon was a political decision rather than a personal one. Her decision to leave King's Landing for Dragonstone also weakened her position in the capital.

Strengths and Weaknesses of the Green Faction

The Green faction, on the other hand, was led by Aegon II Targaryen and his mother, the Dowager Queen Alicent Hightower. The Hightower family was a powerful and influential one in King's Landing, and they supported the Green faction. Lord Borros Baratheon, Ser Otto Hightower, and even the Iron Islands under House Greyjoy declared their support for Aegon II. The Green faction also had several dragons, including Vhagar, Dreamfyre, Sunfyre, Tessarion, Shyrkos, and Morghul.

King Aegon's legitimacy to the throne was based on male preference primogeniture, making him Aegon I's eldest surviving son and thus a stronger claimant to the Iron Throne. However, he also made poor judgments, such as aligning himself with Ser Criston Cole and his mistress, the Dowager Queen. The Green faction's political maneuvering and support network were equally effective, but their dragon force was not as numerous as the Blacks.

Key Decisions and Their Impacts

Several critical decisions would have altered the outcome of the Dance of Dragons:

Rhaenyra's Morale and Leadership: If Rhaenyra had maintained her focus and stayed in King's Landing, she might have gained more support and control over the crown's resources. Her leadership would have been more effective if she had not been distracted by personal issues. Decisions Regarding Marriages: Rhaenyra's marriage to Ser Laenor Velaryon was more of a political alliance than personal. Had she chosen a more personal ally or strengthened her family ties through marriages, it might have solidified her position further. Strategic Military Maneuvers: Both factions engaged in various military campaigns and alliances. If either Rhaenyra or Aegon II had made better strategic decisions, the outcome might have been different. For example, more effective use of a larger dragon force or a stronger naval fleet could have swung the tide.

Alternative Outcomes

Here are some hypothetical outcomes if different decisions were made:

Queen Rhaenyra's Success: If Rhaenyra had managed to stay in power and consolidate her support, she might have successfully taken the Iron Throne. Her virtues and the respect she had earned would have made her a legitimate ruler, and her unity with Houses Velaryon, Arryn, and Tully could have solidified her reign. Aegon II's Predominance: If Aegon II had managed to neutralize the Black faction's threats more effectively, he might have been able to claim the throne without significant resistance. His legitimacy and support from families like the Hightowers and Greyjoys could have been enough to secure his rule.

The Dance of Dragons was indeed a complex and fateful conflict shaped by many factors. While Rhaenyra's faction was initially more powerful in many ways, the missteps and errors in judgment ultimately led to their downfall. Understanding these dynamics provides valuable insights into the intricacies of political and dragon warfare in Westeros, but it also offers lessons about the importance of strategic planning, leadership, and the impact of personal decisions on the larger narrative.