Introduction

The Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, and his future seems to be the subject of many speculations, particularly regarding his potential fate if he were to flee to Russia. Drawing parallels to historical figures Edward Snowden and Howard, this article explores the probability and possible outcomes of Assad's life if he were to relocate to Russia.

Historical Context

Examining historical precedents from the Cold War era, when the U.S. and Russia engaged in espionage and mutual understanding, can give us insights into the likely treatment of a high-level figure like Assad if he were to seek refuge in Russia. The relationship between Russia and the individuals who defected to Russia offers a framework for understanding potential scenarios for Assad.

Assad’s Fate Compared to Ex-Spy Edward Snowden

Edward Snowden, an ex-NSA contractor, sought refuge in Russia after leaking classified information that revealed extensive surveillance by the U.S. government. Unlike Snowden, who faced a high risk of death during his transits and eventual stay in Russia, Assad, if he flees to Russia, is more likely to enjoy a reasonably safe and comfortable existence. Unlike Snowden, who met a tragic fate (falling down a step), it is unlikely that Assad would suffer a similar outcome.

The FSB, the successor to the KGB (Kremlin’s intelligence agency), treats high-profile individuals like Snowden with a certain level of hospitality. They provide safety and even a measure of luxury to ensure smooth diplomatic relations. For example, if Assad were to arrive in Russia, he could expect a similar level of care and comfort, but without the political leverage that Snowden wielded.

Assad’s Potential Post-Exile Life in Russia

Assad’s lifestyle in Russia would likely be that of a wealthy but not ostentatious Moscow resident. The Russian government, while supportive of Assad during his regime, would likely continue to support him in exile to maintain diplomatic relations. Assad would have the means to enjoy a stable and secure life, but his celebrity status is likely to dwindle with time, and he would become a more obscure figure.

Russia’s stance on political exiles has been consistent. Whether it’s providing mistreatment or a relatively comfortable lifestyle, the Russian regime is known to keep its exiles under surveillance without attracting undue attention. Historical precedents show that even high-profile figures like Assad would likely be treated with a degree of respect and comfort to avoid international embarrassment.

Assad’s Future in the Eyes of Putin

While Putin and the Russian regime have been supportive of Assad, the situation on the ground in Syria may eventually shift. If the political climate changes in such a way that Russia’s support for Assad becomes detrimental to its interests, they might decide to get rid of him as a political liability. Dictatorships, unlike democracies, often lack checks and balances, making opportunistic decisions more likely.

In such a scenario, onetime luxury and high protection would transition to increasing surveillance and potential threats. If the regime's priorities change in the future, Assad’s stay in Russia could become shorter or more precarious.

Conclusion

In conclusion, if Assad were to flee to Russia, he would likely enjoy a life of relative comfort and security in Moscow. While he might not be a household name, Assad would have the means to live a life free from immediate danger. However, the political landscape of the region is complex and volatile, and his future in Russia may depend on the whims of the Russian leadership.

Conclusion

Given the historical context and current political dynamics, Assad’s exile in Russia would be a probable but uncertain scenario. While political circumstances play a significant role, the human element and the personal relationships within the Russian establishment would ultimately shape his fate.